XBTUSD analysis

Let’s analyze the clusters to evaluate the investment attractiveness of bitcoin at the moment. Here is the BitMEX:XBTUSD chart.

Despite some dramatic declines in May and June, this market continues to hold its uptrend, which is marked by three black lines. The upper line is resistance. The lower line represents support. The middle line is the central axis of the channel.

Let’s focus on the action of the last week to understand the current sentiment of the market. 

15 June, the price declined rapidly with a spike in volume. However, candle closed at the top. 

Interpretation. It was a false breakdown, aimed to captivate the bears in the trap and trigger congestion of stop-loss orders, which was “hidden” under the low of June 11 and round level of 9,000. Once the price has broken the 9,000 level, followed by massive sales. They can be characterized as Panic. Delta was extremely red. However, the subsequent closing around the top of the day confirmed that this was not a genuine selling pressure, but rather the activity of professionals who absorb Panic selling from the hands of an emotional public. This is the traditional way in which major players accumulate their long positions. 

June 20, the price has tested the lower support line. And as you can see, at the low of the day volume profile were thin. It suggests that the sellers were inactive. The price can not break down the support level without increased volume, thereby support line confirmed its validity. 

The following day, June 21, we had the lowest volume for many weeks. Interpretation. It was a day of indecision and the silence before the storm. A slight fluctuation of the market in such cases likely to develop into a powerful movement. 

On 22 June, we got a sharp rise in prices. Please note that Delta was green and the total volume of trading increased. After a day of indecision? the market by its own demonstrated, which direction is more interesting to develop. 

So what? Given the current uptrend and signals of strength on the previous days, we can say that June 22 was a change of trend. Interestingly, this day means a change of another trend. Indeed, after June 22 the days get shorter and nights get longer.

What to expect in the coming days and what’s the plan?

The chart shows that the market has rebounded from the support line of the upward channel. In this case, the longs are more preferable. The most obvious targets are about the Central axis of the ascending channel, and more ambitious targets – near the upper line, the resistance line. 

However, the bulls should prove its strength because the price is facing the resistance level, it is marked with a red line. This resistance was formed on June 11. The massive trading profile around 9,800 reflects the powerful efforts of the bears, after which the price fell rapidly. Bears have proven their control at this level. Therefore, we can expect resistance at 9800 in current days.

Perhaps after rising on June 22, the bulls will need some resting before launching an attack toward 9,800 resistance. If it will be successful (and this is likely), this red-line level will act as support for further growth.


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