02 Mar Bitcoin Weekly, Monthly, and Annual Forecast (Elliott + DeMark) (Public post from 02 march 2020)
After a short break, I return to my forecasts. I decided to change the format and instead of daily forecasts for Bitcoin, I decided to make forecasts on a daily basis of various instruments, including the stock market and Forex.
If you are reading my forecasts for the first time, then first read the next section to understand how to work with this article. If you are already familiar with my work, feel free to skip the section “How to read my analysis”
How to read my analysis.
My analysis consists of modelling candles of the current period on a monthly, weekly, daily and 4 hours TF using tools from Thomas DeMark, Wave Theory, trend and graphical analysis. The projection of candles is built with an assessment of the differential directions, which give an understanding of the market mood of the candle. The projection is built on smaller Timeframes – annual, monthly and weekly candles.
Key levels help to track the adequacy of the scenario and timely revise it if necessary, so as not to fall into resonance with the market.
Dear Friends, I remind you that in this article I express my personal view of the market, which I share with you for educational purposes. I do not guarantee profits. Only you make the final investment decision and all the risks associated with it.
Let’s start at the very beginning …
Consider the general wave structure of supercycles.
The most probable scenario of the wave structure of a supercycle is shown above. In accordance with it, the current movement is closed in the horizontal triangle of the correctional wave (2) of this supercycle.
From which it follows that throughout 2020 with a high degree of probability we will be on the sidelines.
On the weekly chart …
Above, we see in more detail the structure of the second wave of the supercycle. The edges of the horizontal triangle are key levels, serving as indicators of the implementation of the bull or bear scenario.
The annual projection of the candle according to Thomas DeMarck (gray rectangle) indicates the zone of tolerance in the region of 5584 – 8752 USD. It is important to note that the lower edge of the triangle and the pivot level at 8115 is located in the same zone, which confirms the importance of the noted key level.
Differential arrows of the annual projection indicate a reversal movement of a downtrend, which confirms the scenario of a reversal this year with the formation of the next wave of the supercycle.
On the daily chart …
wave (e) can be represented as a five-wave structure with elongation in the first wave and truncation in the fifth. It is impossible to say for sure that it will be just such a structure, but thanks to the differential arrows and the Thomas DeMark Projection, I understand that there is a high probability of a reversal impulse of upward movement in the month of March, which confirms the hypothesis about the imminent formation of a 2-wave bullish correction, the depth of which will be limited to 9800 – 10000 USD.
Weekly forecast …
the four-hour chart above shows green dotted arrows that partially coincide with the direction of the differential arrows and mark the formation of a new wave structure.
With a high degree of probability, we will see a bullish impulse with a pullback within the week. Crossing the red key level down will indicate the breakdown of this scenario and the need to revise the weekly forecast.
The approximate target of the bullish impulse is 8900 – 9200. An exit above the green key level will indicate the need to revise the scenario for a more positive one. In this case, within the framework of the week, let’s say an increase of 9500 or even higher.
Here is my view on Bitcoin. Please note that the scenario described above is not constant and will be revised if key levels intersect. I do not guarantee profits. Only you make the final decision about opening or closing a position and all the risks associated with it.
Take care of yourself and your money!
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